The Long-Term Outlook
India is currently the fastest-growing major economy globally.
Moody's Projection: Global credit rating agency Moody's Ratings projects India will lead emerging market and Asia-Pacific growth, with a robust GDP expansion of 7.0% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026.
Underpinning Strength: This resilience is attributed primarily to strong domestic demand and high public sector capital expenditure (Capex).
The Statistical Question: Why the GDP Overhaul is Needed
While growth is high, the statistics ministry is preparing for a major overhaul of the GDP series, which involves changing the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23.
Why Change the Base Year? Economic structures change rapidly. The current 2011-12 base year is outdated, missing:
The massive growth of the digital economy (e-commerce, fintech).
The formalisation is driven by GST implementation (which started in 2017).
New economic data from recent surveys and censuses.
The Impact: The new base year will provide a more accurate, statistically robust picture of the economy, capturing sectors that currently do not contribute enough to the official numbers. This is a critical step for India to project its true size and trajectory.
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